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A look inside one of Moddy's NBA models — and what it reveals about why winning bets doesn't always mean making money
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The moment a bet becomes personal, you stop evaluating probability and start defending yourself. That shift is subtle — and expensive.
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Near-misses trick bettors into believing they’re improving — even when the decision was flawed. Here’s why “almost right” is one of the most expensive illusions in betting.
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One bad prediction means nothing. Edge is built over hundreds.
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