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Todd Rogers

Co-Founder
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Blog posts

Expected value explained: why a 75% win rate can still lose you money
Betting intelligence
Expected value explained: why a 75% win rate can still lose you money
Why AI beats the “hot hand:” the hidden math behind smarter sports predictions
AI & modeling
Why AI beats the “hot hand:” the hidden math behind smarter sports predictions
78% win rate…and barely profitable: the truth about NBA moneyline models
Betting intelligence
78% win rate…and barely profitable: the truth about NBA moneyline models
What sailing taught me about predicting the future
Moddy POV
What sailing taught me about predicting the future
Why ChatGPT can’t predict outcomes — and what actually can
AI & modeling
Why ChatGPT can’t predict outcomes — and what actually can
Why the smartest predictions never come from a single model
AI & modeling
Why the smartest predictions never come from a single model

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